The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula which can be used to guide your kasyno bets during a session of blackjack. The system is most commonly used in the world of economics and finance; however, it’s also become a favourite method for card counters at the blackjack table.
The main reason for using the Kelly Criterion is to give you an outline of when it’s best to alter your zakłady bukmacherskie bets in order to maximise your profits when the deck is in your favour. The criterion was developed by John Kelly whilst he was working at the Bell Labs in Texas.
In practice the mathematical formula takes in a range of variables in order to produce a result which determines the percentage of your bankroll you should wager at certain stages of a blackjack session. When combined with accurate card counting the system the Kelly Criterion can help overcome the house edge and make you a huge profit.
Implementing the Kelly Criterion while at the blackjack table is extremely difficult and it takes a huge amount practice to get it right.
The Kelly Criterion’s formula is shown below:
Where:
f* = fraction of bankroll to wager
b = is the odds received on the wager, such as “3 to 2″ odds (where b = 3 here)
p = probability of winning (example: this number is 0.75 for a 75% probability)
q = probability of losing, equal to 1 – p (example: q = 1-0.75 = 0.25)
Once you’ve plugged in some numbers (specific to your session of blackjack) you’ll be presented with an answer to f*. This is the fraction of your bankroll you should be betting in a specific situation.
While the Kelly Criterion is great for maximising your expected profits, it is a very complex formula. Indeed, the average casino blackjack player will not be able to do this at the table and maintain a winning strategy. Thus, while it’s useful to understand the concept, it’s not something you should attempt without some serious practice.